Poll: Gore and Bush face close races in New HampshireBy Keating Holland/CNN
January 26, 2000
Web posted at: 6:51 p.m. EST (2351 GMT)
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore enjoys a 53 percent to 44 percent advantage over former Sen. Bill Bradley among likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain has a 43 percent to 36 percent margin among likely GOP primary participants, according to a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.
Bush is followed by publisher Steve Forbes has support from 12 percent of Republican voters and former Reagan administration official Alan Keyes has 6 percent.
How does the abortion issue affect the Republican race? Thirty-eight percent of all likely voters in the GOP primary say that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances -- and a majority of those voters support McCain. Fifty-seven percent of all GOP voters think abortion should always be illegal or should be legal only in a few circumstances. They give Bush a 40 percent to 36 percent edge over McCain. New Hampshire GOP primary voters are similar to Republicans nationwide on abortion.
On the Democratic side, there has been much discussion about the effect of President Bill Clinton's State of the Union speech on Thursday night. Likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters don't like Clinton all that much on a personal level, as opposed to Democrats nationwide, where a majority have a favorable view of Clinton as a person.
And Granite State Democratic voters who dislike Clinton personally currently give Gore a 50 percent to 47 percent edge. So if the State of the Union changes some New Hampshire Democrats' opinion of Clinton, that may help Gore.
On the other hand, Clinton may be preaching to the converted on Thursday night. Seventy percent of New Hampshire Democratic voters say they plan to watch Clinton's speech on Thursday night -- but most of them are already Gore supporters.
The poll is based on interviews with 451 likely Democratic primary voters and 565 likely Republican primary voters conducted January 23-25, 2000. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points unless otherwise noted.
| Likely voters' choice for nominee |
| Gore | 53% |
| Bradley | 44% |
| Likely voters' choice for nominee |
| McCain | 43% |
| Bush | 36% |
| Forbes | 12% |
| Keyes | 6% |
| Bauer | |
| Abortion should be legal... |
| In all circumstances | 24% |
| In most circumstances | 14% |
| In a few circumstances | 40% |
| Never | 14% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
| Abortion should be legal In all or most circumstances |
| McCain | 51% |
| Bush | 33% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 7 percentage points
| Abortion should be legal in few or no circumstances |
| Bush | 40% |
| McCain | 36% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 7 percentage points
| Opinion of Clinton as a person |
| | National | New Hampshire |
| Favorable | 54% | 30% |
| Unfavorable | 38% | 61% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
| Favorable view of Clinton |
| Gore | 64% |
| Bradley | 34% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
| Unfavorable view of Clinton |
| Bradley | 50% |
| Gore | 47% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
| Will you watch State of the Union? |
| Yes | 73% |
| No | 26% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
| Likely voters' choice for nominee |
| | Speech Watchers | All Others |
| Gore | 57% | 42% |
| Bradley | 41% | 52% |
Asked of likely Democratic primary voters
The tracking poll has reached the point where, for the first time, separate three-day samples can be compared. On the Democratic side, there has been little change between the interviews conducted between January 20-22 and those conducted in the last three days. On the GOP side, however, there has been some slight movement in Bush's favor. Bush has gained seven points among women, six points among older GOP voters and nine points among GOP voters with higher incomes.
| Choice for nominee among all likely voters |
| | January 20-22 | January 23-25 |
| McCain | 42% | 43% |
| Bush | 33% | 36% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 6 percentage points
| Choice for nominee among women |
| | January 20-22 | January 23-25 |
| McCain | 44% | 41% |
| Bush | 31% | 38% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 6 percentage points
| Choice for nominee among voters over 50 years old |
| | January 20-22 | January 23-25 |
| McCain | 44% | 40% |
| Bush | 31% | 37% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 6 percentage points
| Choice for nominee among voters who make more than $50,000 |
| | January 20-22 | January 23-25 |
| McCain | 46% | 43% |
| Bush | 29% | 38% |
Asked of likely Republican primary voters
Sampling error: +/- 6 percentage points
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