HURTING IN HANOI

Liberalization The poor will pay the price

Interview Indonesia's Ali Alatas speaks his mind

Notebook On the trail of the ASEAN spirit in Hanoi

Scoreboard ASEAN's accomplishments and failures

SINGAPORE PRIME MINISTER Goh Chok Tong's stark opening statement to the 6th Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Hanoi said it all: "This has been a traumatic year for ASEAN members." And how. The region's devastating economic crisis has certainly left the member states reeling. What has made the year even more troubling is the seeming discord in the group's ranks. Never before have the members differed with each other so intractably and so publicly - leading many observers to even fear for ASEAN's very survival.

In Hanoi, the point was underscored by an unresolved split over what should have been a simple decision: the admission of Cambodia into ASEAN as its 10th and final member. "It's never happened like this before," said Thai Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan, referring to the tawdry impasse that festered on until it clouded the summit meeting itself.

Yet, in truth, the unseemly charade over Cambodia's entry was merely symptomatic of other fault lines that have wracked the association over the past year. ASEAN's once-inviolable principle of non-interference in each other's affairs remains an issue causing much dissension and debate. The Crisis should have acted as a common foe for the members - but instead they have been going their own separate and often conflicting ways in search of a solution. Little wonder Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad remarked at the meet: "ASEAN's responses to the challenges confronting the region have created the impression of an ASEAN in disarray, its members at odds with one another."

Philippine President Joseph Ejercito Estrada echoed Mahathir's views: "Doubts have been raised about the ASEAN spirit, about our solidarity, about our credibility." Thai PM Chuan Leekpai said bluntly: "Some have gone so far as to write us off." The only consensus, it seems, is that there is no consensus. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Stanley Roth has struck a dark note, voicing his concern at the potential for instability. "Given the importance of a cohesive ASEAN to regional stability, the recent rise in tensions between several ASEAN members is necessarily troubling, even if these tensions will not likely escalate into conflicts," he said. How did the much-lauded grouping, which celebrated its 30th birthday last year, descend to this?

It all began in July last year when Thailand's currency was depegged from the U.S. dollar and promptly went into free fall. The region's other currencies - and their economies - followed. That same month, plans to admit three new members to ASEAN hit a snag when one of the trio, Cambodia, erupted into violence during Hun Sen's putsch against his then fellow co-premier Prince Norodom Ranariddh. Myanmar and Laos were inducted, but Cambodia's entry was deferred until it fulfilled certain conditions - namely forming an effective government. Last month, it did just that and its admission at the Hanoi summit was widely predicted.

Given that host Vietnam was avidly pushing for his country's entry, Hun Sen may have thought he had a done deal. But the group split over the issue in a most public fashion. A six-strong faction led by Vietnam and Indonesia championed Hun Sen's cause. Opposing were Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines. Both sides dug in and openly acted as if their view was certain to prevail. The Vietnamese, for instance, arranged for the Cambodian flag to fly alongside the other nine and even set up a seat for Hun Sen on the stage for the opening ceremony. But the two sides were still stubbornly at odds when their leaders arrived on Dec. 14.

That night, the summiteers locked horns behind closed doors. Indonesia's new president, B.J. Habibie, led the pro-admission attack. An official at the meeting later told Asiaweek: "Habibie was going into all this mechanical and aerospace lingo: Let's get Cambodia in now and lift the ASEAN spirit up into the skies, that type of thing. You guys are just looking at the micro picture, you have to look at the macro! We can have a win-win situation - that was his favorite phrase."

THREE DECADES AND COUNTING

Peace and stability:

Has kept even major disputes - remember Sabah? - from turning into conflict.

Indochina activism:

Brought Vietnam in from the cold and helped manage an orderly, if imperfect, resolution of the civil war in Cambodia.

Economic integration:

The ASEAN Free Trade Area initiative is now the centerpiece of cooperative efforts.

Regional security balance:

While the U.S. will keep the peace in the Pacific for some time, the ASEAN Regional Forum is the only multilateral security grouping in the world that includes all the major powers.

...AND WHAT IT HAS LEFT UNDONE

The Crisis:

Recovery may be in sight, but bold measures or no, East Asia is not out of the woods yet.

Dealing with China:

Both sides are still feeling their way in an uneasy relationship, complicated by the perennial Spratlys issue.

The Southeast Asia nuclear-free zone:

ASEAN members have signed on, but what about the guys who actually have the weapons?

Non-interference and consensus:

Critics say they are outdated concepts in need of review if ASEAN is to evolve.