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Web-only Exclusives November 30, 2000 From Our Correspondent: Hirohito and the War A conversation with biographer Herbert Bix From Our Correspondent: A Rough Road Ahead Bad news for the Philippines - and some others From Our Correspondent: Making Enemies Indonesia needs friends. So why is it picking fights? |
DECEMBER 10, 1999 VOL. 25 NO. 49
A Swift Reversal of Fortune
As the Crisis fades, East Asia aims for deeper cooperation
By ROGER MITTON Manila
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 Left to Right: Laos PM Sisavath Keobounphanh, Indonesia's Wahid, Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar, Myanmar junta chief Than Shwe, host Estrada, Goh of Singapore, Thailand's Chuan, Cambodian PM Hun Sen, Brunei's Sultan and Vietnam Premier Phan Van Khai Dennis Sebangan |
No kidding. ASEAN has worked a near miracle over the past 12 months. From appearing like a bunch of economic basketcases, the group now expects to post collective growth of up to 3.4% this year - and is set to perform significantly better in 2000. Exulted Philippine President Joseph Ejercito Estrada: "We're buoyed by the return of business confidence." Taking advantage of this, the 10 members - together with three key dialogue partners China, Japan and South Korea - began looking ahead in a more visionary way than at any time in ASEAN's 32-year history.
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Why the sudden coziness? Kim's foreign minister Hong Soon Young reckoned that "economic hardship made us keenly aware we share a common fate." In other words, it was the Crisis - and the realization that when push comes to shove, the region has to rely on itself. Says political scientist Amitav Acharya of the Toronto-based Center for International and Security Studies: "This is partly a reaction to the Crisis, which led to some disillusionment with APEC, and partly a signal to the U.S. and Australia that their recent policies don't meet ASEAN's interests and expectations."
For now, few are willing to concede that ASEAN's poorer members may be swamped by the heavyweight trio from the north. Siazon put a defiantly positive spin to the Forum concept. It would have to be along the lines of the EU, he says. "You can see the beginning of a unified ASEAN because it can be considered almost as one entity, like a country as large as China, participating with these three other countries." At the summit, that sort of optimism fuelled visions of an Asian Monetary Fund and a common currency to challenge the greenback and the euro. Pie-eyed perhaps, but given the bold pledges to accelerate tariff reductions under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement, it all began to sound logical.
The ever-cautious Japanese pointed out that words were not enough. "It is imperative that we follow up with concrete actions," warned Prime Minister Obuchi Keizo. In Manila, he was doling out loans like a benevolent Father Christmas. The money will partly go to redressing economic disparity in ASEAN - a concern of Singapore PM Goh Chok Tong, who noted that the four new members remain way behind the founding six. Said he: "We recognize that we have a two-tier ASEAN." Meanwhile, Japan won the backing of all the other summit participants for its former finance vice-minister, Sakakibara Eisuke - known in his bureaucratic heyday as "Mr. Yen" for his influence over currency movements - to take over the IMF after current boss Michel Camdessus steps down in February.
But the camaraderie was broken over the issue of a code of conduct for the South China Sea, where sovereignty disputes have threatened regional harmony. Hopes that a draft code would be signed were dashed by irreconcilable differences among the three main claimants: China, Vietnam and Malaysia. Beijing has never liked dealing with the others on a collective basis, preferring to pick them off one by one. Notes Acharya: "ASEAN did not help matters by remaining divided over the code's scope." With its biggest member, Indonesia, hobbled by secessionist tendencies and a still-shaky economy, the prospects for ASEAN in this tussle do not look good. "China cannot develop without East Asia; neither can East Asia prosper without China," said Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji. He smiled a lot, but refused to budge. Concludes regional security analyst Carl Thayer: "China played diplomatic hardball with ASEAN - and won."
Beijing's big-brother attitude could spoil the party even before it begins. Then there is Washington to consider. Recall how quickly Tokyo two years ago abandoned its original Crisis-fund proposal in the face of American opposition. "Japan won't sign on if the Forum is aimed at supplanting the U.S. role at a time of increasing Japanese fear of China," says Acharya. Many recall how when Malaysia's leader Mahathir Mohamad first mooted the notion of a region-wide caucus, Washington reacted as if a viper had crept into the White House.
But ASEAN may have graver threats to its ambitions in its own backyard. On his debut summit, Indonesia's President Abdurrahman Wahid was welcomed warmly, but some were left wondering about the shelf life of the controversy-prone neophyte. His latest last-minute flip-flop: much to his hosts' relief, he nixed a meeting with Hashim Salamat, leader of a Muslim separatist group in the southern Philippines. Still, Wahid's colleagues were encouraged by his vow that any referendum in turbulent Aceh would only be about adopting Islamic law, not about independence or autonomy for the province.
Yet even worries over Indonesia's breaking up seemed secondary when set beside the genesis of the East Asian Forum. Decades from now, the Manila summit may be regarded as ASEAN's finest hour. Reflecting on the millennium-eve milestone, the group's secretary-general Rodolfo Severino proclaimed that "East Asia has entered a new era." Rightly so - and not before time.
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