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Subcontinental Drift: Farooq's Folly
Or, how bad leaders can undermine good ideas
By APARISIM GHOSH
June
22, 2000
Web posted at 2:30 p.m. Hong Kong time, 2:30 a.m. EDT
In a region bristling with corrupt, inept politicians, I can't think of anybody who is as universally loathed as Farooq Abdullah, the Chief Minister of India's Jammu & Kashmir state. Widely regarded as a feckless playboy--by Kashmiris, Indians and Pakistanis alike--he has nonetheless remained the only Kashmiri leader with whom New Delhi will do business. The secret of his success: the conviction of successive Indian governments that his National Conference party represents moderate Kashmiris, and the best hope of keeping the disputed territory within the Indian union.
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In reality, Abdullah represents a tiny fraction of the Kashmiri élite. He clings to power by Delhi's fiat and by conducting farcical elections that are ignored by a majority of Kashmiris. In the most egregious example of this, his party was returned to the state's Legislative Assembly last year by roughly 10% of the electorate. Abdullah claims most Kashmiris back him, but are afraid to vote for fear of reprisals from separatist groups. Nothing could be further from the truth.
For years, the puppet Chief Minister has been content to "win" elections, and then retreat into his fortified Srinagar residence, away from the view of his constituents. But in recent months, he has ventured some suggestions on how to solve the mess that is Kashmir. First, he championed the idea of formalizing the LOC, leaving India and Pakistan each with the half of the territory that they currently hold. This week, Abdullah introduced in the Assembly an ambitious proposal for greater autonomy for Jammu & Kashmir. Under this plan, the state government would have full control over its affairs, excepting defense, foreign relations and communications. The proposal has been criticized by the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress Party.
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To give credit where it is due, both of Abdullah's brainwaves hold more than a germ of sense. Many independent analysts say turning the LOC into an international border might be the only workable solution to the 53-year-old dispute between India and Pakistan. Others have suggested that greater autonomy might appease the separatists.
Ironically, the Chief Minister may himself have killed any chance that those two plans might work--simply by proposing them. Abdullah is so deeply reviled by Kashmiris that they would instinctively reject any idea of his. But there is another, more important reason neither proposal will work: Abdullah didn't bother to consult Kashmiris before announcing his intentions. The scion of an aristocratic family (his father was Kashmir's first, and as yet only, popular leader), Abdullah has never had much patience for public opinion. It seems to have escaped him that no solution in Kashmir will work without overwhelming public approval.
What's more, Abdullah is now trying to bully Delhi into accepting his autonomy proposal, warning that all hell will break loose if it doesn't. In a thinly veiled threat, he told the Assembly: "Had it not been for my government, India would have said 'khuda hafiz' (goodbye) to Kashmir long ago." He also criticized Delhi's recent efforts to open talks with separatist groups. Abdullah's message: it's me or mayhem.
This is a transparent bluff, and I suspect it will be called very soon. In the months ahead, Abdullah will learn that Kashmiris don't want an autocrat making their decisions--and Indians don't like being blackmailed. The sad fallout is that two workable ideas will go down the drain.
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