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INSIDE AFRICA

What Is Next for Somalia?

Aired January 6, 2007 - 12:30:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

FEMI OKE, HOST: Hello, I'm Femi Oke. This is INSIDE AFRICA, your look at life and news on the continent. Coming to you this week from Mayfair (ph). It is primarily a Somali community here in the middle of Johannesburg. It's a holy day, so I'm dressed appropriately.
After decades of anarchy, we ask this week: What's next for Somalia?

And we take a special look at a school of hope, opened by Oprah Winfrey in South Africa this week, too. But first to Somalia. Once again, the nation finds itself on the brink. Here's Jim Clancy.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM CLANCY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: While some hail the overthrow of the Islamist militias who seized much of the country six months ago as getting Somalia back on track, the reality is much different. For 15 years, this nation and its 9 million people have been hurtling down a highway of chaos and ruin, and missing every exit from their inevitable designation as a failed state.

SAID DGINNIT, AU PEACE & SECURITY COMMISSIONER: We have missed so many opportunities in the past. Since 1991, we stopped (ph) the first opportunity, which was given to the - to the Somalis (inaudible) to help.

CLANCY: This time, it has been Ethiopian troops, with the tacit approval of Washington, that have opened a new avenue, a new exit from chaos.

During the Cold War, dictator Mohamed Siad Barre played Moscow against Washington for arms and money. His end came as the dust settled after the collapse of communism. It was in 1991. Somali warlords ousted Siad Barre, ushering in 15 years of anarchy.

As millions risked the starvation in 1993, U.S. Marines led an international effort to restore order and hope. But warlords, playing on tribal and clan loyalties, repulsed the effort.

The casualties suffered in Somalia before the end of the mission in 1995 set a precedent that endures to this day. Most of the West unwilling to commit its own peacekeepers to missions in Africa.

In 2004, the main clans, armed groups and politicians set up a transitional government, with the help of the United Nations, supported by the African Union and Ethiopia. But it has been struggling to exert any authority.

Then, last June, the Union of Islamic Courts seized the capital Mogadishu after fierce battles with an alliance of warlords. The U.S. and others accused the Islamic Courts of ties to al Qaeda, a charge it denies. But it had popular support, because the Islamic Courts provided what Somalia needed most: Security.

MOHAMED TUSBAXLE, SOMALI TRUCK DRIVER (through translator): We were not assured of our own safety by the transitional federal government. They need to tackle the insecurity in Mogadishu. They have a duty as they fought the Islamic Courts, who had secured the area.

CLANCY: Even as they retreated, Islamic Courts leaders vowed to create an insurgency. Incapable of mounting its own security, the transitional government must quickly get international help before Ethiopian troops withdraw.

African, European and U.S. diplomats are trying to assemble an African peacekeeping force. But the warlords are waiting in the wings.

What can the government do for itself?

EMIRA WOODS, INSTITUTE FOR POLICY STUDIES: What is needed is to right away focus on political negotiation that will broaden the democratic space for Somalis to really determine their own future.

CLANCY: That's asking a lot. But unless Somali shoulder that responsibility, with the help of the rest of the world, there will be no real Somalia, just a name on a map.

Jim Clancy, CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: Somalia hasn't been shorted for an interest and involvement. Among the key players are the United States, which backs the interim government and Ethiopia's current offensive. They're also widely believed to have supported the warlords who reigned over 15 years of anarchy. Ethiopia now has thousands of troops in Somalia, in support of the government.

And there is a third interested party monitoring the events in Somalia: Ethiopia's neighbor and longtime rival, Eritrea, has been accused of backing Somalia's Islamists.

The involvement of Ethiopia and Eritrea is fueling worries that the two are going to fight a proxy war on Somali territory.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: The fates of Ethiopia and Eritrea have been intertwined over the years, and not in a very positive way. When a United Nations reports last year accused Ethiopia and Eritrea of backing rival sides in Somalia, it (inaudible) that the conflict could draw in the two rivals, and become a broader regional war. The Islamists' rapid collapse seems to have eased those fears, but didn't stop Ethiopia's prime minister from taunting his neighbor.

MMELES ZENAWI, ETHIOPIAN PRIME MINISTER: If the Eritrean government had been eager to stop the regional war with us, they would not have had to hide behind the skirts of Somali women.

OKE: Once back in the 1980s, Zenawi, and Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki, fought side by side against Ethiopia's Marxist government. That war ended in the early 1990s, with Eritrean independence and Zenawi as leader of the Ethiopian government. But the relative calm in the two countries didn't last.

Unresolved border disagreements erupted into full-fledged war in 1998, and the two-year conflict took more than 70,000 lives before a peace deal in 2000.

But despite that peace deal, and multiple subsequent agreements the dispute is far from resolved. Eritrea was awarded the town of Badme, but Ethiopia still claims it. And while Eritrea has international rulings on its side, Ethiopia has powerful Western allies.

In an effort to get the international community to pressure Ethiopia into accepting the ruling, Eritrea restricted the operations of peacekeepers along the border, and expelled U.N. staff from Western countries.

And in October 2006, the United Nations accused Eritrea of moving soldiers and tanks into a buffer zone. Neither side has shown any inclination to budge, leading many to believe that Ethiopia and Eritrea could use Somalia as a setting for a proxy war.

Both Ethiopia and the U.S. have accused Eritrea of supporting the Islamists. "The New York Times" quoted Western intelligence officials as saying, "Eritrean troops were distributing anti-aircraft missiles to the Islamists."

ALEXANDER WOLFF, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO U.N.: Situation in Somalia is a complex one. It's a mistake to look at the issue and the problem is a result of Ethiopian troops in the country. There are number of issues that have to be addressed by the parties.

OKE: Eritrea denies it has armed the Islamists in Somalia and claims the conflict there is a proxy war for the United States interests. Eritrea Information Minister Ali Abdu said of the Ethiopian prime minister, "He is just acting as a simple mercenary of the U.S. He does not even know what he is going to do, because he does not know what instructions will come to him from his recruiters."

Abdu also delivered a warning, saying Somalia could become a quagmire for Ethiopia -- an ominous warning for the people of Somalia, who have known little but war for the past 15 years.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: So, what's next for Somalia? To get some analysis and some perspective, I spoke to Iqbal Jhazbhay of the University of South Africa. He specializes in Somalia. So we sat down and talked politics.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

IQBAL JHAZBHAY, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA: The Ethiopian government has made clear that it's not in there for the long haul. And it will be in its interests, as well as in the interests of Somalis inside f Somalia for Ethiopia to withdraw and to make sure that that is resolved (ph), either through an international force or a peacekeeping force, where Somalis themselves come to a consensus to create a national army, to create a national police force. That is the major next step in this unfolding scenario in southern Somalia.

OKE: Which player, do you think, is going to determine what happens next to the Somalis? Would it be Ethiopia? Could it be the United States, what do you think?

JHAZBHAY: We found in societies in transition, where issues of justice have to be resolved, land redistribution, all the major constituencies have to come together. The minorities, the majorities, as well as the transitional government, as well as the Islamists.

Just before the entry of Ethiopian forces, I think the Islamists miscalculated the possibility of a joint government. They dismissed the idea. But now I believe the TFT, as the internationally legitimate constituted government for Somalis, has to take on and stand up to the possibility of sharing power with Islamists.

The key ingredient is good quality, mature leadership. I have no doubt standing up to warlordism, standing up to overtaxing people is going to be the big challenge. Standing up to the idea of a realistic demobilization plan, standing up to the idea of reconciliation in genuine way.

Mandela and Mbeki could have avoided meeting an apartheid P.W. Botha, but they understood you have to take all the groups along with you.

OKE: I want to talk about the Somali people. How are they faring right now?

JHAZBHAY: Somali people are legendary in terms of their entrepreneurial spirit. They're known to have strong survivalist, nomadic instinct, which is used in many parts of the world. And for that reason, they have the cheapest telecoms in the world, a thriving economy based on trade. What they yearn for is security, security, security.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: Iqbal Jhazbhay from the University of South Africa, speaking to me earlier.

When we come back, the hunt for al Qaeda in the Horn of Africa. We take a look at U.S. involvement in the region. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OKE: Hello again. You're watching INSIDE AFRICA from the Amarel (ph) plaza in Johannesburg, where I'm surrounded by Somali gentlemen, and I'm just wondering where the Somali ladies are, sir.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Somali ladies are (inaudible) in this moment actually working. At work. Yeah, at work

OKE: They're at work. And meanwhile, the gentlemen hanging out, relaxing, drinking? Yeah, yeah, very nice.

Oh, I better get back to work now, as we turn out focus to U.S. interests in Somalia. Washington has hundreds of troops in the region as part of the war against terror. Barbara Starr has more on that, and some of the video in her report was shot in the last few weeks.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BARBARA STARR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: For years, this has been Somalia - violent, clan warfare, the country that the U.S. believes has become an al Qaeda stronghold, sheltering some of those responsible for attacks on U.S. embassies in East Africa.

Now, one of the world's most dangerous cities, Mogadishu, has moments at least of peace. Somali and Ethiopian troops have moved in. The Islamic militia that ruled for six months has fled.

It all seemed inevitable just weeks ago, when CNN was in the region talking to top U.S. commanders, who predicted Ethiopian troops would cross the border, and help the weak transitional Somali government drive out the Islamic Courts Council.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And from an Ethiopian point of view, you look at the Islamic courts, you hear them bandy the word "jihad" about, and all of a sudden you realize that you have an ideological threat that's facing you that's very concerning, and I think that's helping to fuel the problem right now.

STARR: Even as the brief war unfolded -- Ethiopia bombed Mogadishu's airport - days later, Somali government troops entered the capital. The U.S. was closely watching. There are 1,800 U.S. troops stationed in Djibouti, next to Somalia.

REAR ADMIRAL RICHARD HUNT, U.S. NAVY: I think that the biggest terrorist threat that we have in this area centers on Somalia.

STARR: Rear Admiral Richard Hunt commands the U.S. military task force.

HUNT: I think the biggest challenge that we have here is ungoverned territories, Somalia being the key example. We have significant areas there where there are known al Qaeda operatives.

STARR: But Hunt's weapons in the war on terror are anything but lethal.

HUNT: We do a variety of things. Medical clinic development and assisting with the training, working veterinarian programs, helping people with irrigation, with well drilling projects. Schools, development. By going after the conditions that foster terrorism. Giving people hope, giving people vision, giving people some of the schools to bring themselves up to a higher standard of living, I think directly goes against extremist ideas and is a very positive contribution to the war on terror.

STARR: Because of recent unrest between Somalia and Ethiopia, the U.S. has stepped up efforts in recent months to monitor terrorist activity and assist Ethiopia in fighting the Islamic militia across the border in Somalia. CNN visited western Ethiopia just weeks ago.

Here in Ethiopia, U.S. troops are training these proud, young Ethiopian soldiers in commando and anti-terrorism tactics. But they're also teaching them very basic skills, like looking after each other on the battlefield.

These Ethiopian troops are some of Africa's best. They tell us they are here to do what all good soldiers do - protect their country. But regardless of who is in charge in Mogadishu, the U.S. position remains unchanged on one front: Somalia must give up the al Qaeda members they shelter.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Al Qaeda operatives that destroyed the American embassy in Nairobi and in Dar as-Salaam are associated with United Islamic Courts. There's no doubt about that. Those people are known to us. They are known to the people in the United Islamic Courts. They are known to the Ethiopians. And as international terrorists, we believe they need to be handed over to responsible authorities and tried. I think it's very, very clear that the fingerprints were there, the people are there, although in very, very small numbers, and it's important to send the message that it is in no one's interests to allow this area to become a safe haven for international terrorism.

STARR: Here on Somalia's remote, rugged border, heavily armed U.S. troops escorted CNN. Even here, security is paramount, and it's easy to see why there is such concern this region may remain a terrorist safe haven.

Barbara Starr, CNN, for INSIDE AFRICA.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: For more on U.S. involvement in the region, Ralitsa Vassileva spoke to Elizabeth Spiro Clark, a former U.S. State Department official, who's now with Georgetown University.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ELIZABETH SPIRO CLARK, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: You have to go back to the situation as it existed last summer, when U.S. policy was to support warlords to have promised to hand over to us terrorists. And we paid them money. They bought many arms. And they rather frightened the residents of Mogadishu, who turned against them and supported the Islamic Courts movement, that then took power in Mogadishu, and the problems we have had have really flowed, I think, from a mistake in judgment on the part of U.S. government that you went for the short-term, for getting and buying terrorists from these warlords.

RALITSA VASSILEVA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: But it seems like what's going on is something very similar, what could be perceived as an interference in Somali affairs. The U.S. is in a way supporting Ethiopia.

CLARK: Yes. I think it will be perceived as interfering in Somali affairs. One of the ministers of the transitional federal government that the Ethiopians imposed in Mogadishu actually said, well, now we can join with Ethiopia and we can throw away our passports. Obviously, this was very inflammatory to nationalist sentiment in Somalia, and we had associated ourselves with Ethiopia. So I think that has been a mistake in policy.

What we haven't looked for is the importance of popular legitimacy. We failed to look at that factor last summer, when we were supporting, working with warlords, and I'm afraid that we're failing to do that again, because this government that's been imposed does not have popular legitimacy and is very weak.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: That was Elizabeth Spiro Clark, speaking to us earlier.

When INSIDE AFRICA returns, we shift gears a little bit from Somalia to South Africa, and the opening of a new school.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

OKE: I'm back at the Amarel (ph) restaurant in Johannesburg with my ever- growing list of Somali friends. Hello, gentlemen.

Big story this week, hit the newspapers, hit the television about a school opening.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: ... and all the American and international big shots were around here.

OKE: Celebrities came down. Nelson Mandela was there.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (inaudible).

(CROSSTALK)

OKE: ... Jeff Koinange, here he is with more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OPRAH WINFREY, SCHOOL FOUNDER: Everybody, these are my girls.

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): A dream come true for 152 very lucky girls and also for one very famous talk show host.

Oprah Winfrey cut the ribbon and helped raise the flag of her very own leadership academy for girls just outside Johannesburg.

And she brought with her a host of Hollywood's finest in both the movie and music industries. From Mariah Carey to Tina Turner, from Chris Rock to Chris Tucker, and from Spike Lee to Sydney Poitier.

Originally, Oprah committed $10 million, but as her vision grew, so did her contribution -- to $40 million. And there's no school like it here. A library with a fireplace, a dining room with marble tabletops, an audio- video center, a gym, a wellness center, dormitories, and tennis courts -- and just 15 girls to a classroom.

That, in a country in which more than a third of the children don't get a chance even to go to high school. And those who do, often go to schools with few books, facilities or even bathrooms.

Winfrey aimed to help the poorest here. Only children from homes that earn less than $800 a month are eligible.

Winfrey has worked to improve education in the U.S. She says she decided to build in South Africa because she found children here hungrier to learn.

"I became so frustrated with visiting inner-city schools," she said, "that I just stopped going. The sense that you need to learn just isn't there. If you ask the kids what they want or need, they will say an iPod or some sneakers. In South Africa, they don't ask for money or toys. They ask for uniforms so they can go to school."

Oprah promised former President Nelson Mandela that she would build the academy six years ago, after she visited some of South Africa's poorest schools.

NELSON MANDELA, FORMER SOUTH AFRICA PRESIDENT: This is unprecedented in South Africa. And we should thank her for providing these young girls with not only specialized education, but life skills that will ensure that they become the best.

KOINANGE: In this once racially divided country, it's not surprising that most of the students are black. But Oprah insists her school is open to everyone as long as they qualify.

WINFREY: This school is open to all girls who are disadvantaged, all girls, all races, who are disadvantaged.

KOINANGE: And from the girls, themselves...

ZAIDA LAWRENCE, STUDENT: I feel excited and happy and...

WINFREY: A little nervous?

LAWRENCE: A bit nervous.

WINFREY: A bit nervous.

MICHELLE CONRADIE, STUDENT: I feel happy and I feel like crying, and -- but crying of happiness. I'm a bit nervous, but not that much.

NOXOLO BUTHELEZI, STUDENT: More than a dream come true. I don't know, it's like a fairy tale.

KOINANGE: At the end of the day, Oprah says it's not about the celebrities and the stars who showed up, but about the girls, about the future of a country and a continent, about fulfilling a promise she made more than six years, and making a little history of her own. In a word, everything Oprah stands for.

Jeff Koinange, CNN, (inaudible), South Africa.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

OKE: That's it for this week's program. Thank you for joining us INSIDE AFRICA. We hope that you'll let our show be your window to the continent.

I'm Femi Oke. Until the next time, as they say in Somalia, wasalando aleikum (ph). Take care.

END

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