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INSIDE AFRICA
The Crisis in Kenya
Aired January 5, 2008 - 12:30:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
FEMI OKE, CNN ANCHOR: Hello, I'm Femi Oke. Welcome to INSIDE AFRICA, your weekly window to the continent.
Now, this week, we focus on a troubling turn in a country that have been considered a beacon of democracy and stability in East Africa. Now, by all accounts, voting went very smoothly in Kenya's presidential and parliamentary elections. But then, came the announcement that Kenyan president, Mwai Kibaki, had won re-election, and that set off an outcry by opposition supporters and plunged the country into violent unrest. Hundreds are dead and tens of thousands have been displaced.
We'll examine what went wrong in this election, a look at the wider ramifications for the region's economy.
Let's begin with how the chaos started. Tensions built in the hours and days after the polls closed, as voters waited for the official results. Then came the fateful announcement from Kenya's electoral commission, followed by charges of fraud and immense outpouring of rage. Nick Valencia has more.
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NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: In this new year, there is little to celebrate in Kenya. A spasm of violence and looting erupted after the country's electoral commission declared incumbent President Mwai Kibaki the winner.
Kibaki, who was sworn in almost immediately, says the vote was free and fair.
MWAI KIBAKI, KENYAN PRESIDENT: With the elections behind us, it is now time for healing and reconciliation amongst all Kenyans.
VALENCIA: His opponent, Raila Odinga, of the Orange Democratic Movement, is accusing Kibaki of stealing the election.
RAILA ODINGA, KENYAN OPPOSITION LEADER: Democracy is expensive, and we're prepared to pay the ultimate price to liberate this country from the shackles (inaudible) dictators no respect or regard for the rights of the people of this country.
VALENCIA: International election observers have raised concerns about the results.
ALEXANDER GRAF LAMBSDORFF, EUROPEAN ELECTION OBSERVER: At the tallying level for the presidential elections, we have encountered some serious problems. Our observers, for example, were present in the Molo constituency when the results were announced there. When the same results were announced here in Nairobi, the result for Mr. Kibaki was significantly higher. This is an inconsistency that we would like to see addressed.
VALENCIA: Kenya's attorney general has called for an independent investigation. The United States is also raising questions about the conduct of Kenya's electoral commission.
MICHAEL RANNEBERGER, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO KENYA: There were inordinate delays in returns coming in. There seemed to be tampering with some of the tabulation reporting forms, and the process was not fully transparent and accountable.
VALENCIA: The Orange Democratic Movement became the largest group in parliament. And although the presidential race appeared to tighten in recent days, polls have predicted for months that Odinga would unseat Kibaki.
A lot of the violence had taken the form of clashes between angry Odinga supporters and security forces. But there is also an alarming ethnic component. At least 17 people were killed when a mob burned down a church harboring mostly ethnic Kikuyus. President Kibaki is a Kikuyu; Odinga is a Luo.
TONY BIWOTT, KTN REPORTER: Then I went inside, I saw three bodies, three skeletons of -- you couldn't even see, it was just children, just the bodies, just three bodies. Then I saw some piled up, on the corner they were white, because now they were like ashes.
VALENCIA: Odinga has called on his supporters, many of whom live in Kenya's poorest communities, to protest the elections results peacefully. But for now, Kenya's reputation as one of Africa's most stable countries is being severely tested.
Nick Valencia, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: The election that brought Kibaki to power in 2002 ran smoothly, and he was inaugurated in an atmosphere of jubilation. So what went wrong this time? I asked an observer from the 2002 vote, John Stremlau. He is vice president of peace programs at the Carter Center in Atlanta.
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JOHN STREMLAU, THE CARTER CENTER: We observed the election in 2002, and it was a very successful election. And the Kenyans, I want to point out, have run up to the counting a very credible election.
Look at the parliament. It's now overwhelmingly opposition party members.
A lot of good things happened, but between the voting and the counting, the system broke down and the violence erupted.
OKE: Why is democracy in Kenya so fragile?
STREMLAU: Well, it's a big question. And it needs the Kenyans to look at it hard and come up with an answer for the rest of us. But from an outsider's prospective, it appears that the institutions for managing the election were too weak, and that the two leaders have not been able to sort of reach common ground in the aftermath, when, in fact, the counting process and the electoral commission and the lack of dispute mechanism created a context where young, unemployed, frustrated youths have run wild.
OKE: Let's go back five years ago. It's just when you were in Kenya and you looked at the Kibaki win in 2002, that was a very different atmosphere from the atmosphere we have in Kenya now. How do you compare those two events?
STREMLAU: It was a celebration. It was a celebration for an opening of a political system which, don't forget, had been really closed under the autocratic Moi regime, and before that Kenyatta's. So since independence in `63, the Kenyan people have not had a lot of political space in which to feel at home and to have their aspirations answered by their government. And corruption developed.
That first turning of the corner should have been consolidated, and in retrospect it appears that not enough progress had been made to make the Kenyan people feel that their government was being responsive to their concerns. And their concerns are overwhelmingly social and economic now, as you know.
OKE: What can the Kenyan public do? There is (inaudible) to the Kenyan public, they're very, very unhappy. How do they show their unhappiness other than taking to the streets?
STREMLAU: You always hope that there will be restrained behavior, but I'm afraid this is really a burden for the leadership -- both for the challenger, Odinga, and for the president, Kibaki, to reach the accommodation, and to bring their people along.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: And that was John Stremlau of the Carter Center.
Still ahead on INSIDE AFRICA, both sides of the Kenya crisis. We'll hear from the opposition and the government. Are they doing enough to end the crisis? And we'll also examine the economic impact on Kenya and its neighbors. Stay with us.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Making business news in Africa this week. The outbreak of violence in Kenya is causing wild swings in the value of the Kenyan shilling and disrupting stock market trading. The country's stock exchange closed early on Thursday due to safety fears. Kenya's economy is the largest in East Africa.
And China is pledging 5,000 metric tons of food aid to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe's government newspaper "The Herald" quotes China's deputy ambassador as saying the food will arrive soon, and that the two countries hope to increase trade to $500 million this year. About 25 percent of Zimbabweans depend on United Nations food aid. Zimbabwe suffers from the world's worst inflation rate, estimated to be around 10,000 percent a year.
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OKE: Hello again. You're watching INSIDE AFRICA's special coverage of the crisis in Kenya.
Opposition leader Raila Odinga says he has appealed to his supporters to restore calm many times, but he also called on them to take part in huge rallies in Nairobi, which were blocked by government forces. Paula Newton asked Odinga if his actions might be heightening tensions.
(BEGIN VIDEOCLIP)
ODINGA: We do not bear any kind of responsibility. What is happening is that the people are reacting to the blatant rigging that they saw on the television screens when the electoral commission was rigging the election by announcing false results from what they knew they had on the ground. So it was just a spontaneous reaction of the people, protests, peaceful protests. But the police have reacted. They're shooting to kill innocent people.
PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: But the burning in the church was a savage reaction to what was going on.
ODINGA: Yes, that is a very unfortunate incident. I want to say that it is completely unrelated to the protests that are going on. Ethnic clashes have been going on in this country for a long time. You have in Kuresoi, in Molo, in Mt. Elgon, and even in Eldoret area. So this has nothing at all to do with the protests that people are carrying out.
NEWTON: That's exactly the same line I just heard from the government. If that's true, you're not accusing them, the government, of instigating ethnic cleansing? Ethnic tension that exists?
ODINGA: The government has been unable to stop these clashes (inaudible) by his (inaudible) that have been occasioned by unfair allocation of resources, particularly land. This has been the cause of ethnic clashes since early `90s. And that is in our own manifesto. We promise that we're going to deal with this conclusively.
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OKE: Odinga also told Paula Newton he would meet with President Kibaki to discuss a political settlement, but only if Kibaki would first agree to resign.
She also spoke to a spokesman from the Kibaki's administration. Alfred Mutua said all of the victims of ethnic violence are Kibaki supporters, and suggested that Odinga and the ODM have been inciting such attacks. Paula asked him to explain why as of Friday, the Kenyan government was rejecting offers of international mediation.
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ALFRED MUTUA, KENYAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN: There was a clear election that was held in this country. Somebody has opposed the results of the elections. We've got the court process, just like it happens in every part of the world. That has not yet failed. Let them file a petition in the high court. Let them go to the next stage. You've got systems to be followed before involving outsiders as if our system has failed.
What they're trying to do with the international mediation is trying to put the country as if it's in civil war, to try and get a compromise for the sharing of power.
You do not share power with losers. You do not share power with people who know better.
If they have problems with the voting, they have problem with the counting of the votes, let them take it to the high court. Let the high court decide. If the high court decides there to be a recount, if the high court decides we need to have another election, we shall succumb to what the high court says. But not trying to use other tactics as if the country is burning to try and get some legitimacy.
NEWTON: Morally, don't you have an obligation to negotiate with them?
MUTUA: Well, it depends, too, because the president got 4.5 million voters. The other leader, (inaudible), was basically (inaudible) got a million votes. Raila got 4.2 million votes.
So at the end of the day, we still have a majority, where majority of the people of Kenya voted.
In parliament we had 104 members of parliament came together today. All members of parliament who are not in ODM are now aligned with President Mwai Kibaki. They're 104 members of parliament, and we expect about 10 more to cross over to President Kibaki.
So, right now as we sit, I can confidently tell you that President Mwai Kibaki has the majority of members of parliament in Kenya.
This will end very quickly because of two things. One, as soon as law and order is restored and as soon as Raila Odinga does what is his constitutionally right, takes this to the court, then the people of Kenya can get back to their normal lives.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: That was government spokesman Alfred Mutua.
The crisis is taking an economic toll, not only on Kenya, but on the whole region. Neighbors including Uganda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo depend on fuel and foodstuffs from Kenya. Allan Kamau, an executive editor of "African Investor," witnessed the election and the chaos that followed. I asked him what the turmoil would mean for development and foreign investment in Kenya and other African countries.
ALLAN KAMAU, "AFRICA INVESTOR" MAGAZINE: I think it's going to do a lot of damage. Obviously, it is early days now, and it's just been sort of a week of chaos, but I think if this -- if there's no political solution, if the ethnic violence is protracted, I think we could see some re-evaluation by some of the multinationals and some of the investors in the region.
In terms of sectors, we've seen, you know, the tourism sector, which is one of the biggest contributors to the GDP in Kenya, is threatened. We know that some of the other sectors, like the stock exchange, have been affected. There's very little trading going on. But just Wednesday, for example, the market lost about 5 percent of its value, and trading has stopped because there's a fear that there might be, you know, an impact on the stock exchange. The Kenyan shilling as well has suffered on account of the investor -- lack of investor confidence. So the impacts for the economy are far reaching.
OKE: You've seen many situations like this all the way across the African continent. How long do you think it would take Kenya to get back into business again? And for the economy to bounce back?
KAMAU: I think the Kenyan economy is incredibly resilient. I mean, the fundamentals of the Kenyan economy are still very much in place. Last year, the country grew something like 5 percent, you know. We know that tourism is doing well. You know, we know that there is a lot of interest from global emerging investors in the continent. So the fundamentals are there, and I think, you know, there is a lot of interest in seeing Kenya do well.
And I think if there is a swift resolution to the political problems, some sort of compromise that can be reached to ensure peace and security, I think the Kenyan economy will ride through this. And I think, you know, while it may not escape unscathed, I think it will be able to ride through this and to bounce back.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: And that was "Africa Investor" executive editor Allan Kamau.
Coming up on INSIDE AFRICA, the Kenyan media and the flow of information. The lag time between media reports and the announcement of official results set the stage for a violent outcry. We'll be right back.
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OKE: Hello again. Returning now to our special coverage of the crisis in Kenya.
The rapid spread of technology such as mobile phones has given the country's media a much wider reach than ever before, and that may be why opposition supporters immediately suspected fraud when electoral commission announced President Kibaki's re-election. Many of them already had access to local results, which seem to contradict the official tally. David McKenzie explains.
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DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: These scenes have shocked the world. Kenya, long considered a stable nation in a volatile region. Now, this. Many are asking, how did it get so bad this fast?
This is a newspaper from the day after the election. It says, "Raila Takes Early Lead." Raila Odinga is the opposition candidate. But two days later, the electoral commission announced President Mwai Kibaki was the winner, triggering the worst violence here seen in decades.
Before that, the nation was glued to their televisions. On one side, a few football supporters. On the other, packed with ordinary Kenyans, cheering the election returns as if it was a sporting event.
The vote count streamed in from the polling centers to the media. TV stations and newspapers had people on the ground to call in the provisional results.
The electoral commission, working in a more traditional way, waiting for the final tallies to be physically delivered, could not keep up with the media reports. The conflicting information led to tension in the streets.
FARIDAH KARONEI, EDITOR IN CHIEF, KTN: (inaudible) the idea of the media publishing the results as they come in is really so that the process is seen as transparent, because the results we publish are announced by the electoral commission at the local level.
MCKENZIE: The delays in the official vote count dragged on for three days. The opposition protested the results that were being announced, claiming the election was rigged, and the government reacted quickly. It ordered a ban of all live broadcasts. It announced the winner in a taped message. And President Kibaki was sworn in, in a hastily arranged ceremony.
The intense media coverage of this election may have helped fuel the fury of this violent aftermath, but the bigger issue is the validity of the vote count itself.
David McKenzie, CNN, Nairobi, Kenya.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: When INSIDE AFRICA continues, a first-time view of the crisis in Kenya. I-reporters, including a woman who bribed her way to safety, tell their stories. Stay with us.
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OKE: Good to see you again. You're watching INSIDE AFRICA's special coverage of the unrest in Kenya.
After the election results were announced, we asked in our newscast for viewers in Kenya to show us events as they were unfolding locally. Here's a look back at the last few days through the eyes of some of our audience.
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OKE: From striking professional photographs to these simple shots caught on a cell phone, I-reporters around Kenya sent CNN their news as they captured it.
Photographer George Goodwin reports that riot police blocked the way out of the Kibera slum, preventing the many opposition supporters from leaving the area to protest. The police shoot live ammunition into the air and tear gas, forcing people off the streets.
Jayne Samuels was on her way back to the United States when she found herself trapped in Kisumu. She recorded the growing frustration of Raila Odinga's supporters.
JAYNE SAMUELS, I-REPORTER: They'd heard that there maybe some corruption in the elections, and they were upset in the delay in the announcement. So those -- that video was actually shot prior to the actual announcement. And yes, that video was shot from my hotel room looking down at the street.
OKE: Samuels made it to the airport by flagging down riot police outside her hotel and paid for a lift, taking pictures along the way.
By New Year's Day, Kisumu was a mess. Dan Smeltzer (ph) says stores that were not looted are still closed down. Ironically, this photograph from Smeltzer was taken on Odinga Street.
The toll of the last few days in Kenya has not been lost on I-Reporters. Joseph Chege (ph) in Mombasa shows how after the riots there, it's been difficult for Kenyans to get basics like fresh water.
One of the most powerful I-reports from the week is just a few seconds of amateur video taken by Duncan Waswah (ph) in Nairobi. A beaten man lies on the floor in pain, and a policeman steps over him. As he records screaming women running from the police, he describes his report simply as this is just a feel of what is going around Nairobi.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
OKE: Thank you, Duncan, and to all of our viewers who sent us their pictures.
And of course, if you have photos or video of the situation in Kenya, send us an I-Report. You can find out how by logging on to CNN.COM/INSIDEAFRICA. That's CNN.COM/INSIDEAFRICA. And you click on the I-Report logo.
But remember, be safe and don't take any risks.
And that's our show for this week, but stay with CNN for our continuing coverage of news from Kenya.
I'm Femi Oke. Until the next time, take care.
END
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